Golden Globes 2023 Snubs (Will Smith) and Surprises (Brendan Fraser)

When it comes to defining an awards show’s sensibility, what is omitted is often as telling as what gets recognized.

That goes double for the Golden Globes, the embattled awards show that will return to the air in 2023 after stories broke last year about the ethical lapses and racial makeup of its voting organization, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. The revelation that the H.F.P.A. had no Black voters helped contextualize the show’s frequent shunning of acclaimed Black films and performers, while accusations against the group that include inappropriate behavior and an eagerness to be swindled could explain why the Globes so often veered in a baffling direction.

After the H.F.P.A. added a more diverse group of journalists to its voting pool, NBC agreed to broadcast next year’s show, which airs on Jan. 10, 2023 and will be hosted by the comedian Jerrod Carmichael. Many studio executives, producers and publicists were eager for the ceremony to return, since it is an important pit stop on the way to the Oscars and helps raise visibility for smaller, struggling films that depend on awards buzz to draw audiences.

But the annual discussion about snubs and surprises will now extend far past the list of Golden Globe nominations, which were announced this morning, and touch the show itself, since many of the nominees could opt to skip the ceremony entirely. A cold shoulder from A-listers could prove to be the most significant Globe snub of all.

In the meantime, here are some of the most eyebrow-raising extrapolations from this year’s list of nominees.

Two critics of the Hollywood Foreign Press are in contention.

Can the Golden Globes move on from its biggest controversies when two key players in this year’s awards race have come out against its voters? The H.F.P.A. had little choice but to nominate the talked-about best-actor contender Brendan Fraser for his performance in “The Whale,” even though Fraser accused the former H.F.P.A. head Philip Berk of groping him in 2003 and had made it clear he would not attend this year’s ceremony. While Fraser is considered the front-runner for the best-actor Oscar, it’s anyone’s guess whether Globe voters will reward a man who’s unlikely to accept the trophy.

During the firestorm that enveloped the H.F.P.A. last year, Tom Cruise announced that he would return the three Golden Globes he has won over the course of his career, but the expanded voting body didn’t seem to hold it against him, nominating “Top Gun: Maverick” in best drama. Will Cruise let bygones be bygones and attend the ceremony, that way boosting the awards profile of his action hit as it contends for major Oscar nominations? If both he and Fraser opt out, it could hobble the comeback chances of a show that runs on star power.

Female directors are shut out.

Four years ago, as Natalie Portman presented the Golden Globe for best director to a group that did not include the “Lady Bird” helmer Greta Gerwig, Portman pointedly noted, “Here are the all-male nominees.” The last two best-director contests proved more equitable and were won by Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) and Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”), but this year, the Globes returned to their old tricks: All six of the nominated directors are men, and none of the 10 movies nominated for best drama or best musical or comedy were directed by women.

Who was excluded? “The Woman King” director Gina Prince-Bythewood failed to make the list, though the movie’s lead, Viola Davis, snagged an acting nomination. Chinonye Chukwu and her film “Till” were blanked across the board, not even netting a nomination for its star, Danielle Deadwyler, who just won the lead-performance trophy at the Gotham Awards. And while the Sarah Polley-directed drama “Women Talking” earned nominations for its screenplay and score, Polley didn’t make the best-director lineup and no one was recognized from the film’s strong ensemble, which includes awards favorites like Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley and Rooney Mara.

“Triangle of Sadness” has much to be happy about.

Can the Ruben Ostlund-directed class satire “Triangle of Sadness” become the first Palme d’Or winner since “Parasite” to make a major Oscar splash? It certainly helps that the film picked up two high-profile Globe nominations: In addition to one for best comedy or musical, “Triangle of Sadness” snagged a supporting-actress nomination for Dolly de Leon, who plays a cruise-ship cleaner turning the tables on her rich charges. That’s a big boost for the Filipina actress, who also picked up a supporting-performance win from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association on Sunday.

Will Smith has another awards-show setback.

In a weak year for the best-actor race, the Oscars face a tricky decision: Should voters nominate Will Smith for the escaped-slave drama “Emancipation,” even though Smith slapped the presenter Chris Rock at the last ceremony and is banned from attending the Oscars for the next decade? The Globes have no such baggage, but even with an expansive best-actor lineup that spread 10 nominees over the drama and musical-comedy categories, they still found no room to include Smith — indeed, “Emancipation” was snubbed across the board.

“Banshees” and “Babylon” come on strong

No film did better with the Golden Globes today than Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which led the field with eight nominations. In fact, this dark comedy about feuding best friends picked up every single nomination it could be plausibly considered for. In addition to ones for best comedy, director, screenplay, and score, the Globes nominated all four members of its main cast, from leading man Colin Farrell to supporting players Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon. “Babylon” got a boost, too: After some raucous, polarizing peek-outs last month, Damien Chazelle’s Hollywood bacchanal snagged five nominations, including key nods for cast members Margot Robbie, Diego Calva and Brad Pitt.

The “Fabelmans” men are left out

When two performers from one film are in contention for the same race, it creates a dilemma: Will they split votes among the movie’s fans, resulting in an unfortunate snub of one or both? Only “The Banshees of Inisherin” managed to get both its supporting actors into contention this year, while in the Globes’ supporting-actress category, Jamie Lee Curtis trumped her “Everything Everywhere All At Once” co-star Stephanie Hsu, and “Women Talking” contenders Foy and Buckley were both excluded.

Perhaps that’s what happened with “The Fabelmans,” which was clearly one of the Globes’ favorite titles: Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical family drama earned major nominations for drama, director, lead actress, screenplay, and score, but the film’s potent pair of supporting-actor candidates, Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch, may have split the vote too thinly. No matter: That Globe is almost certain to go to “Everything Everywhere All At Once” star Ke Huy Quan, who’s swept every awards stop so far. If he decides to attend the Globes, expect his speech to be the night’s most viral clip.

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